Since the 2011 Arab Spring, the Sahel countries of Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger have been fighting Islamist insurgents whose aim is to overthrow the governments concerned and establish an Islamic Caliphate. Since 2011 this conflict has spilled over into the neighbouring coastal countries of Ivory Coast, Ghana, Benin and Togo. The two main Islamist organisations involved are Jama’at Nasr al-Islam wal Muslimin (JNIM) and the Islamic State-Sahel Province (ISSP), the Sahelian branches of al-Qaeda and Islamic State respectively.
Mali
In 2013 around 1,000 French troops deployed to Mali as part of a counter-insurgency operation in the Sahel – ‘Operation Barkhane’ – which continued until 2022. During this period 38 French soldiers and more than 600 Islamist fighters were killed. However, the Islamists were not defeated.
On 24 May 2021 Malian Vice-President Assimi Goita, a military officer, led a coup which overthrew the government of Bah N’daw. French President Macron then announced that the French military deployment in the Sahel would soon end as national governments in the region were ‘negotiating with terrorists’. In the event, the French withdrawal started in February 2022 – coinciding with the expulsion of the French ambassador – and the withdrawal was completed in August. Meanwhile, in January 2022 Malian officials confirmed that 400 Russian Wagner Group mercenaries had arrived in the country.
In June 2023 UN peacekeepers withdrew from Mali at the request of the Malian government having suffered 175 fatalities during a deployment that began in 2013.
By 2023 Wagner Group personnel were fighting alongside Malian forces with some success. But in July 2024 Tuareg rebels ambushed a Wagner/Malian convoy. A three-day battle followed in which between 20 and 80 Wagner personnel were killed – according to Russian sources.
A further significant attack occurred in September 2024 when JNIM assaulted a military training camp and airport in the capital Bamako killing more than 77 people, including military personnel.
Upsurge in violence
Starting in May 2025 JNIM has increased the intensity of its operations in both Burkina Faso and Mali, carrying out ten ‘large-scale’ attacks to date over half of which killed more than 50 people.
In Burkina Faso JNIM has primarily targeted administrative centres. On May 11 JNIM overran the town of Djibo near the border with Mali killing between 100 and 200 civilians and soldiers. The following day they assaulted Diapaga, releasing prisoners from the local jail and destroying buildings.
In June the focus of the JNIM offensive switched to Mali where it attacked several army bases killing more than 200 soldiers. As a result, the Malian government dissolved all political parties and announced that President Goita would remain in power for another five years. Moreover, the Wagner Group announced that it was withdrawing from Mali as it had “achieved its mission”. According to Russians sources, Wagner was in fact withdrawing because it had suffered heavy losses in a week-long battle with militants near the Algerian border.
Outlook
Military coups in all three Sahel states have not prevented the security situation from deteriorating further. Islamists have repeatedly defeated government soldiers in battle, and both Burkina Faso and Mali have lost control of large parts of their territory.
European countries no longer provide military assistance on the ground, and Russia’s Wagner Group have been forced to withdraw from Mali. The Sahel states must now either provide their own combat support from aircraft, helicopters, drones and special forces – or rely on America. However, the US will probably now reduce its counter-terrorist effort in sub-Saharan Africa.
Furthermore, the reduction in US aid to Africa will make it harder for Sahel governments to retain their citizens’ loyalty. As it is, government and Wagner Group war crimes in both Burkina Faso and Mali have driven many citizens – notably Fulanis – to look to the Islamists for protection. The governments will not prevail without popular support.
It seems now to be only a matter of time before one of the Sahel states falls under the control of Islamists. As things stand, Mali – the northern-most state – looks likely to be the first domino to fall.
By Skeptic