Five decades ago Nigeria was a continental leader, an economic and military power. But it has since spiralled down an abysmal path of self-destruction. Nigeria has suffered angry, xenophobic attacks from fellow Africans tired of the loudness and the petty criminality. There has been lip-pointing by peers in the international community. Meanwhile, internal bigotry between tribes and ethnic groups has defined Nigeria’s politics, resource control and – more urgently – its security.
Nigerians both at home and in the diaspora who are desperate to bring about a saner and more tolerant country are pressing the international community to send fact-finding missions in the hope that can make sense of what is happening. The EU, the UN and the US are leading the research and investigation.
The greater Sahel region bordering Nigeria has recently become so lawless that the government is racing to enact laws before the end of the current electoral cycle that would give states responsibility for their own security. This devolution of power from central government would be a game-changer. Alterations to the constitutional structure of the country have been resisted since the Civil War (1967-1970) which wrecked the unity imposed on Nigeria by Britain at independence. This unity was a forced marriage in which strangers were made to share resources – and their destiny – despite having a very different orientations in both governance and development.
The South was liberal, green and secular, with a robust economy which enabled it to look forward to a future of good prospects. But it was forced to share the vast oil resources of the delta with the arid north whose population barely eked out a living while looking forward to the life to come.
Now the north’s future looks bleak. There are frequent killings of Christians and farmers in the hinterland, and kidnappings for ransom and rape to go with the general poverty. But the governments of northern states prioritise the Hajj and mass weddings while the political class corruptly enriches itself. The north’s future is bleak.
As the fractures between north and south become ever wider, it will not be surprising if the voices of those advocating for self-determination become much louder. After all, the government has in effect already given each clan a mandate to defend itself against those who are massacring its members.
It remains to be seen whether Nigeria manages to divide itself peacefully – perhaps through a UN mandate – as Sudan managed to do by voting for separation in a referendum. The alternative is for Nigeria to experience violence first and then follow through with a referendum – with or without the intervention of the international community.
All the evidence suggests that Nigeria may not survive what lies ahead. The outlook is ominous!
By Mubarak Bala
Writing from Europe